Toyota can ride this out. With a larger non-US presence combined with their cash stockpile they shouldn't be too worried about what's happening now.
The real problems would be: a) oil prices re-spike and people start moving away from cars as a form of transportation toward things like trains/busses; b) after this recession, people decide they don't need new cars that often and hang onto their vehicles a lot longer; c) Chinese auto companies enter the world stage.
I don't think the first two will happen since we'll be back to consumerist exuberance in a year or two forgetting the whole "save for a rainy day" thing and I think oil producing countries have realized that stable oil prices are in their interest as nothing drives fervor for alternative energy like high gas prices.
Young people in the UK seem less bothered about passing their driving test at 17 - university is ahead of them, so there is no point putting money into a car - I went down this route, and am now 27 and still don't drive, and cannot see this changing unless it becomes essential to work or family. The roads are so congested where I live that the car is no longer a symbol of freedom like it had been for my parents.
The UK has a much more effective public transit system than most of the US. Also, the distance scale there lower than it is in the US. These factors together mean that changing driving patterns in the UK may not be matched in the US (personally, I know of anecdotal evidence in both directions, so I expect the difference in the US to be very regional).
By area, most of the US is hard to serve with mass transit. But by population it's tractable -- you don't have to lay bus/rail mesh everywhere, only where it's already dense. The 10 largest metro areas in the US are about 75% the area of the UK with a population 5% larger.
Ok much more likely is that houses near bus/train lines will increase in price and houses that don't even have sidewalks will decrease. Zipcars will rise in popularity and if possible people will actively choose to live near stores in walking distance. Renting on "main street" usa will be popular and some towns might even re-zone to make it more friendly to live near stores rather then surrounded by miles of houses and nothing.
I think it's more of an issue with city growth and layout.
The biggest issue that mass transportation faces in American cities is sprawl. Subways/buses/etc work great in New York and Chicago because they are far more compacted and urban than Houston or LA.
I live in Phoenix, and there's been a great deal of hoopla surrounding the newly launched light rail system, but they'll be lucky if it serves > 1% of the population. Buses are underused here as well, since they have so much ground to cover. For my last job, the bus would have taken over 2 hours and 3 changes, as opposed to a 30 minute drive.
Well, here comes the anecdotal evidence. I think that the light rail will do significantly better than the bus system has - I think that it doesn't have the stigma associated with it that the bus does.
Its intention is to get enough people going from the East Valley to the downtown corridor to take it to lighten some of the loads on the 60 and 10.
I work up at Indian School and Central and will be at least trying to take the light rail from out in Mesa, even though I need to drive 5 miles to the station.
Of course, Phoenix was built as a car town, so I don't think there will ever be adequate public transportation here just because everything is so spread out and there are no real centers of business other than the few downtown Phoenix / Tempe sorts of areas.
The real problems would be: a) oil prices re-spike and people start moving away from cars as a form of transportation toward things like trains/busses; b) after this recession, people decide they don't need new cars that often and hang onto their vehicles a lot longer; c) Chinese auto companies enter the world stage.
I don't think the first two will happen since we'll be back to consumerist exuberance in a year or two forgetting the whole "save for a rainy day" thing and I think oil producing countries have realized that stable oil prices are in their interest as nothing drives fervor for alternative energy like high gas prices.