The problem is perspective. The types of people that spend time on HN don't spend time in the real world, where the current state of affairs is very different from what we think it is. Apple gets a lot of hype, and no doubt the iPhone is very successful (because it was a new type of product), but the iPad is no more than than a glorified toy. Once Windows 8 tablets are released and become commonplace, the iPad will stand no chance. The ability to use the same device for casual consumption and for productivity cannot be understated. Try getting out of San Fran for a few days, and you'll start to understand what I'm talking about. There was a similar issue with Android a few years ago, but it seems even the most hardcore iOS fanboys (such as Marco Arment) have finally gotten on the Android train.
And don't forget about the TV. The iTV simply will not sell, because people are not going to throw out their existing TVs just so they can get the latest shiny toy from Cupertino. OTOH, MS has huge market- and mind-share in the form of the Xbox 360 (which has been the best-selling console for more than a year). You can already watch Netflix and HBO GO on it, and Amazon Instant support has just been added. Kinect has proven extremely successful, and with Project Glass, all kinds of new mashups are going to become realizable.
> I'm sure your imagination of a Windows 8 tablet is vastly superior to an actual real-world iPad.
Have you been living under a rock? Windows 8 is coming out this October. Several consumer previews have already been released, and hardware has been demoed. Windows 8 tablets are much more of a real entity than you seem to think.
Not true. I use my iPad every day. My use varies from maybe 30 minutes of email to a good few hours. On my iPad I write, I organise my day, I handle notes and document recipes for things I cook. I deliberately try to keep it a personal rather than business device but I still use it for work email, calendaring and a few bits and pieces (mostly notes). I read incessantly on the iPad and it's my primary source of daily news.
> Once Windows 8 tablets are released and become commonplace, the iPad will stand no chance.
You're betting on an unestablished fractured software experience against the main market leader? I can understand Windows 8 standing a chance against Blackberry, against WebOS and maybe against pre-ICS Android but it will take a long time for Windows 8 to catch up with Android if it blows Android out of the water. Once it's managed to get that far there has to be something seriously wrong with iOS for it to overtake. Also if you're planning on betting on Office to see you through, hate to be the one to burst your bubble but Office has been available for the iPad for months, and the iPad's had office-compatible document readers/writers that are good enough for simple documents for years.
> The iTV simply will not sell
You are right, but this is because the iTV does not exist for sale. Apple haven't announced it. There is no iTV product.
> Have you been living under a rock?
There really is no need for this type of thing on HN.
> Windows 8 is coming out this October. Several consumer previews have already been released, and hardware has been demoed. Windows 8 tablets are much more of a real entity than you seem to think.
Can I buy a Windows 8 table now? No. Can I evaluate a consumer preview version of Windows 8 on an iPad? Yes. So in a way you're right, but given that the only real entities are the wrong devices running a prototype it's not fair to compare. However, having used the consumer preview in Parallels I have to say I'm not looking forward to metro on the desktop, but on the tablet it might work well.
> The types of people that spend time on HN don't spend time in the real world, where the current state of affairs is very different from what we think it is. Apple gets a lot of hype, and no doubt the iPhone is very successful (because it was a new type of product), but the iPad is no more than than a glorified toy.
This is quite the non-sequitur. Apple products are successful precisely because they appeal to people in the real world. Your comment about the iPad being a toy is a timeless refrain that has been leveled against every single Apple product since the original Macintosh. That time, they lost to Microsoft because A) the Mac was way too expensive, B) the ecosystem was too small, and only by the standardization of the PC was a viable ecosystem able to emerge and C) Adoption was driven by businesses who purchase by checklists rather than by personal appeal. These same downsides no longer exist, and the iPad launch is one of the most successful new products in the history of the world.
Probably most on HN are hoping for MS to hit a home run with Windows 8 if for no other reason than to foster competition and innovation. But the other thing you have to realize is that Microsoft's "no compromises" approach is insanely difficult to pull off. It's much harder than what Apple has done, and the risk of creating a confusing product that does not resonate with customers is incredibly high.
So what you're saying is that the 350m iOS devices sold and the 400m credit card holding accounts Apple has and the record breaking revenues - that's all going to go by the wayside when Microsoft release a version of Windows Phone OS where you can alt-tab into a legacy mode version of Windows 7? Perspective indeed.
If you think all of a sudden iPads are going to stop selling when windows 8 tablets come out you must have been the one living under a rock. People don't go out and buy iPads because they want tablet computers. They go out and buy iPads because they want iPads. They want the app store, they want the integration with their computers and iTunes and their phones.
Windows 8 tablets will sell, but not to the same demographic.
As for Xbox vs a TV made by apple, you'll be wrong again, mark my words. Things that come out of cupertino sell. Project Glass sounds like a response to Airplay to me.
Overall, you're trolling because you're a microsoft fan.
> And don't forget about the TV. The iTV simply will not sell, because people are not going to throw out their existing TVs just so they can get the latest shiny toy from Cupertino.
There isn't any value to be had in arguing that Apple has designed a terrible product that has no reason to exist when it does not, in fact, exist. When and if Apple releases a TV product other than the current Apple TV, I'm sure it will be fascinating to see what form it takes and whether or not it manages to capture any meaningful marketshare. Until then, you're needlessly attacking a strawman based purely on rumors and hearsay.
If you think this is the case, you really don't get it. You may as well be living under a rock.
Windows 8 is going to go over like a fart at the opera. It's Vista all over again. They're pissing off developers and consumers at the same time. They really don't know how to pick their battles.
What's even more worrying for Microsoft is that the iPad costs at least twice as much and was never sold at a loss.
If I was working on the development team for the next generation Xbox I would be wearing diapers to work.
When you take out the expensive high-DPI touch-screen and the expensive battery, you're basically left with an AppleTV. Those sell for about third of the price of the current generation of the Xbox. If the next generation AppleTV had a nice Bluetooth controller and installable apps, it's very bad news for both Microsoft and Sony.
People said that Macs were glorified toys until Windows made GUIs commonplace. I don't know what the future holds but I'm pretty convinced that it is not a hybrid OS like Windows 8.
The problem is perspective. The types of people that spend time on HN don't spend time in the real world, where the current state of affairs is very different from what we think it is. Apple gets a lot of hype, and no doubt the iPhone is very successful (because it was a new type of product), but the iPad is no more than than a glorified toy. Once Windows 8 tablets are released and become commonplace, the iPad will stand no chance. The ability to use the same device for casual consumption and for productivity cannot be understated. Try getting out of San Fran for a few days, and you'll start to understand what I'm talking about. There was a similar issue with Android a few years ago, but it seems even the most hardcore iOS fanboys (such as Marco Arment) have finally gotten on the Android train.
And don't forget about the TV. The iTV simply will not sell, because people are not going to throw out their existing TVs just so they can get the latest shiny toy from Cupertino. OTOH, MS has huge market- and mind-share in the form of the Xbox 360 (which has been the best-selling console for more than a year). You can already watch Netflix and HBO GO on it, and Amazon Instant support has just been added. Kinect has proven extremely successful, and with Project Glass, all kinds of new mashups are going to become realizable.
> I'm sure your imagination of a Windows 8 tablet is vastly superior to an actual real-world iPad.
Have you been living under a rock? Windows 8 is coming out this October. Several consumer previews have already been released, and hardware has been demoed. Windows 8 tablets are much more of a real entity than you seem to think.