Except the performance of S&P 500 isn't random. Over a long horizon, it is explained by economic policy and resulting economic conditions. There is a reason that most EU and LatAm nation indexes have done so much worse in the last 25 years: Worse economic policy. I still have high hopes for China equities.
Is this a controversial opinion? The most I could say without feeling like a total liar is: It is probably random around some signal, and that signal is indirectly affected by economic policy in ways that are itself not perfectly deterministic. Is it I who is out of touch?
