My prediction is this.

1. OpenAI hypes what they could do with their AI to get insane funding rounds (we are here)

2. OpenAI takes that money and tries to build the thing that they pitched in #1.

3. They will struggle to meet the goals set out in #1 and funding will slowly dry up

4. Training costs will overwhelm them and they will go bankrupt

5. MS buys them out for pennies on the dollar and integrates their models with their Copilot brand.

I thought the agreement is Microsoft gets full access to all the being models, except when they develop AGI.

If that's the case, I could see their relationship turning sour. OpenAI wanting to declare AGI to break ties with Microsoft; and Microsoft doing everything it can to deny that OpenAI has created AGI.

It is already there. Microsoft has intellectual property rights any pre-AGI innovations OpenAI makes, and most of the investment they have paid was in the Azure credits iirc, so basically in company scrip. And MS helped Sam oust rebels in the company and return. I would honestly consider them a part of MS now.