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I simply cannot use this as signal to update my priors on the theory given how politically charged this issue is and the new administration.

We cannot ignore the timing or the fact that the release appears to be the direct consequence of the previous director not believing the information he had passed the evidential bar and the new directory believing it does.

It's new signal on the question, which is always nice-to-have, but I'll be digesting it with a huge grain of salt given its pedigree.



I don't think anyone is updating their priors. It's just a loud restatement of existing priors.


Society is like a meta-brain. One neuron may believe something to a different degree than the others - i.e. different priora. Highly-reported channels like this are the society brain updating its priors at large.




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