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Some excerpts:

> In the medium-to-long run, the size of the US economy is persistently 0.2% smaller in real terms under the package

> The average effective tariff rate would rise by approximately 6.1-6.3 percentage points under the proposal, once consumers and businesses substituted towards domestic or non-tariffed imported goods.

> The individual commodity with the largest price increase is natural gas. The average price rises 8.4%

> Crude oil prices rise 1.1% in the long run.

> Auto prices rise 3.9% on average,



Thanks for the summary. Did they factor in any of the recently announced retaliatory tariffs?


"The Budget Lab modeled the economic and fiscal impact of the tariff proposal both with and without retaliation."


I just skimmed the article, I saw they mention retaliation, but what about further escalation? I.e. repetitive tit-for-tat?


At the imminent level. The tariff rate can and likely will go up.


How did these peeps do predicting the effects of Trump's first round of tariffs back in 2018 (the ones Biden kept in place)?




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