Only as to the year. Give it time. They have a lot of money to spend so the decline will be slow and they will not go down without making lots of noise and buying out lots of potential successors. But the decline is beginning. Sooner or later Facebook believers have to accept this.
I'm excited about the decline because it means the rise of something better. Continual improvement. When one door closes, another opens. But I recognise that many others do not share my optimism. Facebook represents something to them, I guess. I can't quite understand it.
Facebook is one step along the path. It was a fad that drew a remarkable amount of attention and participation. The internet just keeps growing. We are in its infancy.
> The internet just keeps growing. We are in its infancy.
Exactly. The internet 10-15 years from now will be unrecognizable, especially the social parts. Facebook (and Twitter, by the way) certainly won't be doing the innovating, and odds are they won't be able to keep up either.
Personally, I thought FourSquare might be the next big thing, but they failed to do anything compelling with the basic idea of location-based social networking. I still think that something big will come along in that space eventually, though.
I actually made the prediction that Facebook would be where MySpace is--forgotten and irrelevant by the mainstream--by 2006. I was wrong.