> Let’s be conservative and say $800/day (though I’d assume many of you charge more). The AI subscription math is a no-brainer. One afternoon saved per month = $200 in billable time. Claude Max pays for itself in 5 saved hours. Cursor pays for itself in 45 minutes.
Is the argument that by using these AI subscriptions, you have free time that didn't have before and now you work less hours? Or that the extra productivity you get from that AI subscription allows you to charge more per hour? or maybe that you can do more projects simultaneously, and therefore get more $ per day?
Otherwise I don't get how the AI subscription "pays for itself".
If a task that normally takes X hours without AI now takes Y hours with AI and you charge $Z/hr, then the value of AI is X - Y * Z for this single task. If the value across all tasks is greater than the amount you are paying for AI, then it has “paid for itself”.
I've never done contractor or $/hr work and I have no idea how these things work in reality, but:
If a task takes you five hours to do without AI and 1 hour with AI charged at 100$, in the without-AI case you're making 500$, in the with-AI case you're making 100$ - price_of_AI, right?
Otherwise your example assumes you're charging someone 5 hours of work when in reality it took you 1 hour and then you spent an additional 4 hours watching TV.
In any case this thinking exercise made me realize that maybe it's more about staying competitive against other peers than about "AI paying for itself". If you're really charging for hours of work, then it is really a competitive advantage against people not using AI.
Assuming an AI-enhanced contractor can do the same amount of work than a non-AI-enhanced contractor in fewer hours, then I'd assume they would get more contracts, because the overall project is cheaper for whoever is hiring them. Does that really lead to you making more money, though? No idea honestly. Probably not? I just can't see how using AI "pays for itself". At best you're making now less money than before, because you're required to pay for the AI subscription if you want to stay competitive.
It depends on the type of contracting really. Some people charge by time, some people charge by value. If you charge by value, a good way to look at it is that your hourly rate is your “costs” and anything on top is your profit margin.
It sort of seems like the author is billing for the time saved and having a coffee or something. Seems a bit off.
Paying programmers by the hour always seemed weird for me because of the productivity spikes. I prefer paying by the job or just buying a weekly block that assumes someone works full time on my project.
I would be annoyed with a consultant who billed me for 4 hours when it was 30 minutes of work and an estimated savings from using AI.
I suggest to try Claude Code out and see for yourself. Solving problems is now cost fraction of the time. What took hours/days before, now might take MINUTES., it's insane.
That's why anyone suggesting AI won't take your jobs is delusional. We will need significantly less developer time.
Or, as has typically been the case in IT, the pie will get bigger.
Maybe I'll program my oven to cook the pizza at a slightly lower temperature, but crisp the living carbon out of it for the final 90 seconds. Just like I'm doing manually now, but less prone to errors because I ignored the pizza while browsing HN and can smell it bur.......
I think developers will just do more. Already in a team of 10 programmers there’s a few who don’t do very much. I think they will be gone. And a 1x programmer becomes a 10x programmer using AI.
I think there will be more work for developers, but it will be harder to slack off.
Is the argument that by using these AI subscriptions, you have free time that didn't have before and now you work less hours? Or that the extra productivity you get from that AI subscription allows you to charge more per hour? or maybe that you can do more projects simultaneously, and therefore get more $ per day?
Otherwise I don't get how the AI subscription "pays for itself".