> the one thing you can measure is dangerously misleading [Demo Day fundraising]
That this is misleading follows from the thesis that the best ideas look like bad ideas. But - historically - didn't the best ideas (dropbox and airbnb) raise funds after Demo Day?
So this is an intriguing thesis, but not supported by the (admittedly scanty) evidence of the two biggest outsize hits. Do the other outsize hits support it (i.e. by not raising funds after Demo Day)?
Footnote [4] http://paulgraham.com/swan.html#f4n says airbnb did get funded; and dropbox was unanimously voted the best in their class (according to one of them http://www.quora.com/Y-Combinator/When-Dropbox-first-present...)
So this is an intriguing thesis, but not supported by the (admittedly scanty) evidence of the two biggest outsize hits. Do the other outsize hits support it (i.e. by not raising funds after Demo Day)?