On-prem to cloud -- took about 10 years. De-facto success.
Blockchain to new age of finance -- 12 years later, not much success overall (Instant regret on anyone dumb enough to buy junk crypto and NFTs)
Quantum computing -- 10ish years later, nothing major, but it might bear fruit long-term.
LLMs -- Let's average all the above and say 11 years from 2022. So 2033 is when you can say it was a bust.
On-prem to cloud -- took about 10 years. De-facto success.
Blockchain to new age of finance -- 12 years later, not much success overall (Instant regret on anyone dumb enough to buy junk crypto and NFTs)
Quantum computing -- 10ish years later, nothing major, but it might bear fruit long-term.
LLMs -- Let's average all the above and say 11 years from 2022. So 2033 is when you can say it was a bust.