> Political priorities can change. As more and more Chinese become middle class or wealthy, they might view things differently from when they just hoped they had enough food for the week.
Lest you forget: China is controlled by the CCP and is not a democracy. It will not affect political priorities if "more Chinese become middle class or wealthy" and "view things differently." The Chinese political system does not answer to them, and will only throw them a bone if there's a major threat to stability.
You're echoing the 90s-era hope that free markets would bring political liberalization to China, but history has debunked that idea.
> Many would have said the same thing about the USSR.
What do you mean, exactly?
China isn't the USSR: they're not wedded to central planning. They've figured out how to use capitalism while keeping it squarely under their control. Arguably, they're playing the "capitalism" game more successfully than "capitalist" countries like the US.
When you compare the US to China, it's the US that looks sclerotic, like the USSR once did.
Once of America's big weaknesses is a common lazy assumption we'll always be at the top, so we don't respond to challenges until its too late. Then we tell ourselves some reassuring story and comfort ourselves by gazing at one of the few remaining industries where we're still ahead. I'm pretty sure if the US and China got into a conflict, the US would get its ass kicked like the Nazis and Japanese did during WWII, and for similar reasons.
I'm not saying it's the same situation, but few people in the 1970s would have imagined it possible that the USSR, a superpower nation, would have a complete political collapse and cease to exist within the next 20 years.
Yeah, but it's more likely the US will collapse like the USSR than it is for China to collapse. The big reason the USSR collapsed was its economic output couldn't keep up, and it couldn't afford the competition anymore.
China's mostly caught up technologically to the US. It's ahead or pulling ahead in many areas. It's production capacity is way ahead. Without Chinese production propping up the US, US stores would probably feel a lot like late-Soviet stores, with bare shelves and not enough products to satisfy demand.
> Without Chinese production, we'd simply still be producing stuff here.
No, the US can't anymore. The supply chains have moved to China now, and needed capital equipment and know-how has mostly been lost in the US. It would take a massive investment to get back to "simply ... producing stuff here."
And if anyone tries, the chorus of "muh iPhone expensive!" would be deafening, the politicians would retreat and go back to bickering about the culture war and plotting their next attack ad, and the businessmen would go back to counting their money.
Lest you forget: China is controlled by the CCP and is not a democracy. It will not affect political priorities if "more Chinese become middle class or wealthy" and "view things differently." The Chinese political system does not answer to them, and will only throw them a bone if there's a major threat to stability.
You're echoing the 90s-era hope that free markets would bring political liberalization to China, but history has debunked that idea.