>Consensus seems to be that the labs are profitable on inference. They are only losing money on training and free users.
That sounds like “we’re profitable if you ignore our biggest expenses.” If they could be profitable now, we’d see at least a few companies just be profitable and stop the heavy expenses. My guess is it’s simply not the case or everyone’s trapped in a cycle where they are all required to keep spending too much to keep up and nobody wants to be the first to stop. Either way the outcome is the same.
This is just not true. Plenty of companies will remain unprofitable for as long as they can in the name of growth, market share, and beating their competition. At some point it will level out, but while they can still raise cheap capital and spend it to grow, they will.
OpenAI could put in ads tomorrow and make tons of money overnight. The only reason they don't is competition. But when they start to find it harder to raise capital to fund their growth, they will.
I understand how this has worked historically but when have we seen this amount of money invested so rapidly into a new area? Crypto, social media, none of it comes close. I just don’t think those rules apply anymore. As I mentioned in a previous comment this is literally altering the economies of cities and states in the US, all driven by tech company speculation. This could be my own ignorance, but it seems to me that we have never seen anything like this, and I really can’t find a single sector that has ever seen this kind of investment before. I guess maybe railroads across the US in the 19th century? I’d have to actually look at what those numbers looked like and it’s pretty hard to call that comparing apple to apples.
That sounds like “we’re profitable if you ignore our biggest expenses.” If they could be profitable now, we’d see at least a few companies just be profitable and stop the heavy expenses. My guess is it’s simply not the case or everyone’s trapped in a cycle where they are all required to keep spending too much to keep up and nobody wants to be the first to stop. Either way the outcome is the same.