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Luck is like time travel. Once you've done such an analysis, luck moves on to represent all those factors that you didn't take into account. That's what the word means.


PG has a good quote, how ignorance can be useful when it keeps you from making other, bigger mistakes.[1] I think this is worth keeping in mind. Does ignoring luck [2] make you better off? Its not clear ignorance is the only strategy.

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[1] http://www.paulgraham.com/mit.html; see also

[2] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luck

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Knightian_uncertainty

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Risk

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stochastic_process




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