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Going to the Moon or Mars is a trojan horse.

Starship's true purpose is to compete with airlines in trans oceanic flights.

Musk has said so many times but then he intentionally obfuscates it with all the Mars and Moon talk.

But remember that you heard this before it was widely realized to be true; Starship isn't about going to Mars. Starship is about going to China.



Far too dangerous and noisy for that to ever happen, surely.

And too fragile/explodey for niche military uses (long range troop drops?)


If you're thinking of passenger service, perhaps it is a bit unattractive in the short term. No good launching and landing spots.

But for military use - think logistics. Rapid delivery of equipment to unusual places. This applies to civilian purposes as well. All kinds of use-cases for speeding up cargo.

The entire economics of Starship and rapid reusability was presented at the beginning of the Starbase work, way back when Hoppy was a thing. He's been sticking to the plan since then. You might want it to be fiction, but he's been very good at figuring out business plans to leverage his ultimate goals.


> But for military use - think logistics. Rapid delivery of equipment to unusual places.

Surely it's too fragile/explodey for military use - the whole thing's a very volatile fuel tank - could it survive being shot at, even a single high-powered rifle bullet (during landing, or even post-landing) without going boom?


It doesn’t have to be able to deliver in a combat zone to be able to deliver halfway around the world close to a combat zone. Or do you think the Hercules is worthless because it isn’t armored and doesn’t have weapons?


>You might want it to be fiction, but he's been very good at figuring out business plans to leverage his ultimate goals.

Not very good on delivering tech though, which is what makes it more fiction than not.


Who makes the bar for "good at delivering tech" if the guy pushing spacex, starlink and tesla simultaneously doesn't reach it?


Many promises that never materialized or resulted in mediocre or bad products, from the Mars mission to the Hyperloop, and from Teslas dismal software and often promised, never materializing fully autonomous drive to the Cybertruck. Let's not go into the robot vapourware either...


Hyperloop is the only thing you listed that is accurate, although it was only a whitepaper + competition. It was open for others to pursue.

Tesla easily has the best vehicle software + OTA and has since the S in 2012. It still feels better than most new vehicles.

You can buy a Tesla (including Cybertruck) today that will do 95+% of drives with 0 intervention. It may not be 100% autonomous yet, but there isn't anything obvious limiting the last step.

The robots exist but are still being developed. Within 5 years, it is hard to imagine them not becoming super valuable within factory settings.



If you think Tesla is bad, you should look into GM or Ford.

There have been many accusations about sudden accelleration, but except for the Cybertruck's pedal-cover slide, there has never been a proven case of a Tesla autonomously accellerating into a crash. But these accusations come a lot, because people are always wanting to shift the blame away from themselves and the automaker seems like an easy target.


And yet SpaceX flies the most reliable rocket in history more frequently than anyone in the world has ever flown, takes astronauts to the ISS regularly, and does so for far less then any competition. Tesla changed the automobile from ICE to BEV in a way people wanted to buy and was practical as a replacement for any use, and created a charging standard so successful every US car company is switching to.

And the Mars missions so far are just delayed.


>And yet SpaceX flies the most reliable rocket in history more frequently than anyone in the world has ever flown, takes astronauts to the ISS regularly, and does so for far less then any competition

Yeah, after almost half a century, they passed 70s-era Soyuz numbers.

>Tesla changed the automobile from ICE to BEV in a way people wanted to buy and was practical as a replacement for any use

The magic of EV subsidies (for both Tesla and buyers).

>And the Mars missions so far are just delayed.

The magic of that statement is that it can be true at any point in the future!


> Far too dangerous

Falcon 9 is clearly proving that doesn’t have to be the case.


That sounds even stupider than using it to go to mars. I really hope it stays a fantasy like most musk projects.


None of that makes sense.

Transportships even reduce speed to reduce costs.

If the payload doesn't pay for all of this, it was a huge R&D investmen from the american people to Musks scifi ideas


The American people didn’t pay for the R&D if SpaceX, Musk did and then customers did. Customers (including the federal government) that saved millions on every purchase.


NASA gave SpaceX 400 Million just for the development of Falcon 9 and there is a video were Musk said SpaceX was bancrupt if NASA wouldnt have stepd in.

NASA also another 6 Billion upfront to SpaceX for Dragon and HLS.

So yes the american paid for the R&D of SpaceX.

SpaceX took the 'risk' but either succeeding or not in your main business is hardly a risk if you need to succeed anyway to have that business.


Yes, but recall that those contracts were made in a competitive marketplace where SpaceX was the lower bidder.

If not for SpaceX, the American People would have paid more to the ULA group for what has clearly turned out to be inferior results, since ULA has received far more money for far fewer services.

SpaceX was the underdog.




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