> suggest climate change only exists if you like nuclear
That is a very uncharitable reading of what I'm saying.
What I am saying is that if you're serious about believing climate change is a large threat (I do), you should be all-in on known solutions for reliable grid-level power. The current fallback for when renewables can't meet grid demand is burning natural gas in modernized grids and coal in grids stuck in the 1800s.
> unpopular with experts
How much of this is based on how expensive it is to bring a powerplant online? How much of that expense is based on endless lawsuits from environmental groups and weaponized environmental laws? Why can the navy without those restrictions build safe reactors for ~$2million/megawatt?
> How much of that expense is based on endless lawsuits from environmental groups and weaponized environmental laws? Why can the navy without those restrictions build safe reactors for ~$2million/megawatt?
Fundamentally, unless you know the Navy's answer and can apply it to override those lawsuits, it doesn't matter: politics can't be wished away just because the wrong people have power.
> The current fallback for when renewables can't meet grid demand is burning natural gas in modernized grids and coal in grids stuck in the 1800s.
Increasingly not; as with all things, you have to aim for where the ball will be rather than where it is, and for this topic that implies that for any given proposed new gas (or nuclear) plant you have to ask about the alternatives, which also include "how fast you we build energy storage, and what would it cost?"
That's not an apples-to-apples comparison. Naval reactors look cheap, because the cost is for the reactor in the narrow sense. Other major costs, such as the containment building and countermeasures against natural disasters and terrorist attacks, are included in the costs for the rest of the ship.
You are accusing environmental organizations of not believing in climate change as a debating tactic. That is uncharitable! But also just weird.
Just leave that part out, it only detracts from your message.
"I think environmental orgs should support nuclear as it is low carbon and generally aligned with their goals. I'm disappointed that many of their members seem to be unaware of the true record on plant safety, particularly compared with coal"
Adding anything about them not believing in climate change makes it sound like you are repeating talking points you picked up from fossil fuel funded propagandists, who to this day are pushing that message.
(Your opinions on nuclear also reveal that media diet, but in a much more subtle way).
> How much of this is based on how expensive it is to bring a powerplant online? How much of that expense is based on endless lawsuits from environmental groups and weaponized environmental laws? Why can the navy without those restrictions build safe reactors for ~$2million/megawatt?
Pretending it's all the fault of the bad environmentalists is a bit ridiculous. A nuclear powerplant is a tricky thing to create. A lot of projects had delay, often not due to any environmentalists or anti-nuclear people, but because the parts failed their internal control, which demonstrates that it is tricky to build. A nuclear powerplant is a huge provider that cannot be turned online for usually ~10 years, so you can also understand the complexity and the uncertainty: we are not able to predict the price of electricity or what will the electricity grid will look like in 2-3 years, and yet they need to predict it for a given region in 10 years.
And some environmental laws are frivolous or turned out the be incorrect (the same way some people who at the time were against some environmental laws turned out to be incorrect years later), but some laws are just legitimate and it is simply not fair to pretend that the opinions of some people should just be discarded because you have a different opinion. I myself don't always agree with some law, sometimes anti-nuclear, sometimes pro-nuclear, but a given fraction of these laws will exist, it is just the reality. It's like saying "communism would work if it was not for people who don't like communism": people who don't like communism will always exist and if your model require a world where it is not the case to work, then your model is stupidly unrealistic.
> if your model require a world where it is not the case to work, then your model is stupidly unrealistic
And yet, our world contains multiple cases where it is the case that nuclear is being built today, at reasonable costs, and with great success. The two examples I've given in this thread are China and the US Navy. Some others include Japan and South Korea, both of which are notably not dictatorships.
What's frustrating in this discussion is policy and management decisions made 50 years ago are assumed to be the steady-state immutable reality in western countries.
My argument is not that nuclear is the best economic play. It's that if you believe that continuing to burn natural gas and coal is an existential risk, you should be spinning up every option all at once as aggressively as you can.
>But repeated delays pushed back full commercial operations until 2024, when the fourth and final unit came online. The setbacks drove up costs and eroded profitability.
What could have caused delays in 2019 ~ 2020 time frame?
What? Who is saying that nuclear cannot be successful, this has nothing to do with my comment. Did you read one sentence without understanding the meaning?
It is simple: some environmental laws are a legitimate ask from some people, whether you or I agree with the ask itself. It has nothing to do with the nuclear, it is about your argument framing the existence of environmental laws as the reason it does not work. If nuclear cannot work well in some countries because in some countries there are people who ask legitimate things, the problem is not these people, the problem is that the nuclear model is not adapted to the reality of these countries.
But again, as I've said, it is not even the case: the difficulties with nuclear are not limited to "some environmentalist".
> It's that if you believe that continuing to burn natural gas and coal is an existential risk, you should be spinning up every option all at once as aggressively as you can.
That does not make sense. If you want to write a software that does something, you don't just spinning up Linux, Windows, Mac, and start writing code in Java, C++, python, typescript, erlang, ... at the same time. What you do is: you write a decision matrix, score it, and _choose one strategy_.
In the context of the climate crisis, the strategy can mix different technologies ... or not. The fact that it does not does not mean that this particular strategy is worse than another. In particular, budgets are obviously limited, so spending X$ on project A may lead to a successful project A while spending X/2$ on project A and X/2$ project B may lead to both projects A and B failing. (and if you don't think it's true, just increase the number N of projects until X/N$ is ridiculously too small to do anything. According to your sentence, you said you should be spinning up every options all at once as aggressively as you can, so you cannot do only N-1 projects, you need to split your money amongst the N projects).
When it comes to climate change, I was 100% pro-nuclear 20 years ago. Now, in some countries, it is too often a money pit (not because of regulation or the bad environmentalists) that is wasting money that could have helped the climate. If you believe that continuing to burn natural gas and coal is an existential risk, you should spend your time, money and energy to real solutions instead of achieving nothing by trying to do everything all at once without a plan.
The analogy breaks down because hydroxychloroquine does not effectively treat Covid. Whereas nuclear power is carbon free (to be pedantic, it's carbon intensity is on par with that of most renewables).
Renewables can give us large amounts of energy but when you need reliable output 24/7/356 you can choose thermal, gas, coal or nuclear. Not all countries have access to thermal energy so if you want to become carbon neutral nuclear is the only valid choice for that aspect.
Or just batteries? Throw on a gas turbine emergency reserve running your favorite fossil or green fuel for well, the emergencies. We’re talking irrelevant emissions.
I truly can’t comprehend where this massive boner for new built nuclear power comes from. Sci-fi?
ah yes, green fuel like dirt cheap H2 and irrelevant emissions from multi GW of gas/coal firming...
I'm not sure what you mean by a boner for nuclear, but we see France has one of the lowest emissions in EU, did teh job in under 20y, is largest net exporter in EU, and spent on this half of what DE spent on EEG alone. Germany is still one of the worst emitters in EU after 25y of ewende.
No country managed to match french emissions (without sufficient hydro firming) even now. Denmark(albeit helped by nordics), California and SA still have higher emissions
And what is the method for say Poland to bring down their 589 gCO2 per kWh emission intensity with the lowest cumulative emissions?
Waiting until the 2040s for new built nuclear power or you know, just investing in renewables and storage?
You seem stuck in some imaginary perfect world, always looking back rather than daring to look forward.
Even the French are wholly unable to build new nuclear power in 2026 as evidenced by their zero commercial reactors under construction and the state of the EPR2 program. The French fleet will shrink due to all plants hitting EOL without replacements in sight.
Looking at cumulative emissions any investment in renewables, even if they are imperfect, extends our timeline for reaching perfect by decades. Due to their deployment speed and how effective they are at decarbonization per dollar spent.
Do both. I didn't advocate to stop renewables. I advocate to do both unlike some that have a boner for renewables and gas firming. Yes if you don't build ren now. You'll have higher emissions till nuclear is ready. If you don't build nuclear now, you'll have higher emissions when you use gas firming. The solution is expanding both, like it's done in France, Sweden, Romania and bunch of other countries
Epr2 is advancing, framatome is already manufacturing it's components. EDF will extend own units just like it was done in US so the fleet will either remain stable or grow
Which means you are advocating for slower decarbonziation.
> If you don't build nuclear now, you'll have higher emissions when you use gas firming.
This means neither technology nor markets will ever change. I think here you have your issue. You assume everything is static.
> The solution is expanding both, like it's done in France, Sweden, Romania and bunch of other countries
You mean the zero commercial nuclear powerplants under construction in those countries?
Talk is easy. Running bidding processes are easy. Selling the public on tens of billions in handouts per large scale reactor and having to own the results for decades is hard.
> Why do so many nuclear fans try to suggest climate change only exists if you like nuclear? It's very odd.
You’re putting the answer you want to hear (“because they are nuclear fans”) in the question, making it extremely obvious but then stating it is “odd”, as if the answer wasn’t straight forward.
Disingenuous – is the word describing this, I believe.
Also you need to check your concepts. “Climate change” is what we want to prevent (more like catastrophe, really, by now).
Compare:
If you believe COVID exists you need to use hydroxychloroquine.
It makes you sound like you don't even believe in the problem you are proposing an (unpopular with experts) solution for.