> The history of the last 250 years is inventing new professions as old ones are automated away.
Even if this still holds true ("past performance is no guarantee of future results") the part about it that people handwave away without thinking about or addressing is how awful the transitional period can be.
The industrial revolution worked out well for the human labor force in the long term, but there were multiple generations of people who suffered through a horrendous transition (one that was only alleviated by the rise of a strong labor movement that may not be replicable in the age of AI, given how it is likely to shift the leverage of labor vs. capital).
If you want to lean on history as an indication that massive sudden productivity changes will make things better for humanity in the long run, then fine, but then you have to acknowledge that (based on that same history) the transition could still be absolutely chaotic and awful for the lifespan of anyone who is currently alive.
The history of the last 250 was moving from agriculture to industrial work to service work. Now the last frontier is starting to be overtaken by automation too.
(And in all of those transitions millions where left behind without work or with very worse prospects. The people that took the new jobs were often a different group, not people who knew the old jobs and were already in their 30s and 40s).
And what would be the new professions that uniquely require humans, when even thinking and creative jobs are eaten by AI? Would there be a boom of demand for dancers and chefs, especially as millions lose their service jobs?
> The history of the last 250 years is inventing new professions as old ones are automated away.
Are you going to have the time and money in 2035 to spend 5 years retraining though? Will you be as cheap and fast as the young ones that will learn with you and ask for half your salary?
New professions will likely come no doubt. Whether existing professionals will be able to transition to those easily is another matter.
This is the kind of sleep walking that’s about to walk humanity into the next dark ages.
My parents say a lot of stuff like this. They tend to gloss over the untold suffering, great depressions and world wars that took us to get here.
The planets resources were also not in risk of running out. As the world is min maxed by billionaires, it nice the lower classes are drained of all capital, they will soon move to fighting each other for resources. the future is looking pretty grim for even the most optimistic of scenarios
Doordash and similar are experimenting with autonomous/remotely operated vehicles and porn is getting decimated once good enough uncensored video gen ai gets available. That doesn't sound like viable career choices either.
It's happening, but theres no law of the universe that says it has to be 1:1. Why are you so confident in this regard? 250 years is a very small slice of human history and could easily be the outlier.
I expect that to continue.