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I'm no decision theorist but I think they should wait for the rewards outweigh the expected harms in expectation rather than being statistically equal.


Fortune favors the bold.


If they took the right gamble, that is :-)


You miss 100% of the shots you don't take.


And sometimes 1000% of the shots that you do. (See, e.g., derivative trading.)


By that logic, you never stop playing a double-or-nothing game. Good luck!




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