That's not obviously a fallacy. You're assuming that it's impossible that some percentage of the pirates would pay if piracy was eliminated. That seems like too strong an assumption.
If even 10% of the pirates end up paying, that's a 100% increase in sales, so the implications of that assumption are not small.
If even 10% of the pirates end up paying, that's a 100% increase in sales, so the implications of that assumption are not small.