What predictions about the technology are the authors making that you do not believe?
There is plenty falsifiable in this in ai-2027.com, and they have not gotten everything right. But some things they have: for example, the Pentagon has already invoked export controls to restrict the deployment of a frontier model. This level of government oversight wasn't predicted until 2027 in the original scenario.
Self improvement of agent-1 is not achieved. Sure, people in AI labs write python code with AI, but I doubt it resulted in 50% algorithmic effiecency in training. Writing python code never was the bottleneck, if it was, AI labs could hire more people to do it. And this is core of the prediction.
There is plenty falsifiable in this in ai-2027.com, and they have not gotten everything right. But some things they have: for example, the Pentagon has already invoked export controls to restrict the deployment of a frontier model. This level of government oversight wasn't predicted until 2027 in the original scenario.