Fair competition under capitalism necessarily drives down profit margins; high profits are either temporary, or due to a lack of competition (e.g. someone has a patent or other IP, or regulatory capture). For example, while a lot of the economy depends on electricity: where competition exists, the profit margin for making electricity is not high; where monopolies or government mandates exist, it can be otherwise. This means that assuming anyone wins (i.e. no doom scenario), the winners are probably going to be those who can make best use of the models. Even chip makers will probably not get a long-term boost out of this; there's plenty of room for more efficient compute, and competitive advantages from e.g. ASML last as long as it takes to reinvent their tech, it's not a law of nature.
So, my plan would be to invest not in the AI companies, but in the economy as a whole who get to use the AI for their businesses.
Caution though, one thing which AI is already superhuman at is persuasion. Regulatory capture is likely even easier today than one might expect purely from the revenues of the AI companies.
So, my plan would be to invest not in the AI companies, but in the economy as a whole who get to use the AI for their businesses.
Caution though, one thing which AI is already superhuman at is persuasion. Regulatory capture is likely even easier today than one might expect purely from the revenues of the AI companies.