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It's funny that this is missing the negative effects or the possibility of an economic crisis scenario. Many data centers are being built by companies that won't exist in a few years, as the winner will take all. This is why XAI is already renting compute to Anthropic. This goes as well without saying that in few years, compute pricing will drop heavily.

Another effect is increased inequality in the US and other Western countries as software/AI/hardware companies are able to do more with less.

The increase in manual labor wages is not systemic. It affects only the labor used to build data centers.

 help



It is systemic due to baumol

Wait but then in your scenario wouldn’t the companies going out of business simply sell their data centers to the winning companies?

Not necessarily. Continued gains in compute efficiency and improved AI chips in your pocket doing more could reduce data center needs

That sounds like a marvelous scenario for economic growth, because we will have tons of capacity to deploy ai models everywhere.

The bad scenario is compute efficiently not increasing much, and hardware prices staying high, while AI is too expensive for most tasks, and 50% of all investments in the economy over the last X years have gone into AI.


The person stated “ Many data centers are being built by companies that won't exist in a few years, as the winner will take all.” The person stated this as a negative.

If those built data-centers are sold to other companies what is the negative? The gains you mention would happen even if those other companies stay in business.




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