I am a top Russian CS degree alumna (HSE). I left Russia even before the war, but now most of my uni peers live and work abroad (US, EU, UK, Serbia, Armenia, Georgia, etc.). It is similar for the alumni of the other top universities there. And we made the right choice, both ethically and financially/career-wise, imo.
Things will have to get a lot worse before russians will rise up. Young people that don't want to be tossed into putin's meatgrinder should be applauded, they make a hard choice and in a very concrete way act to show they will not be used.
Big respect to each of you, its never easy to move away. Talk is cheap, 10x moreso on internet. Actions define a man / woman and their legacy and self worth.
You made the right choice, but importantly, this is a single generation of uni graduates. Each subsequent generation finds it harder to leave, and even if all who would could, there will still be enough human capital for the war effort and then some. For comparison, brain drain is even stronger in Israel, proportionally.
The Soviet Union arguably had some of world's finest engineering talent, but many of those most skilled left as soon as they could. Some of these, or their children, would go on to found startups.
> The Soviet Union arguably had some of world's finest engineering talent, but many of those [..]
.. were not Russians. USSR itself incorporated besides its native Russian talent 2 talent powerhouses of Ukraine and Armenia. Ukraine was the industrial powerhouse. Armenia was the USSR's silicon valley with hightest per capita of scientists in USSR. There is also Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania to consider, all of them active in relative high tech engineering.
Drone units of occupation forces of Russia are primary taegets for AFU and due limited control distance for FPVs, Russian drone units are serving at the zero line, actually. So they are sent to actual front lines constantly (despite what Russia officially claims)
> Most young people with a conscience (which is most people that like to read) leave
No. I am sure that most young people with a conscience remaining. And it is mostly people without a conscience who leaving.
Russia is an extremely poor country, and literally governed by mafia. So generally it is impossible to leave Russia if you are not in top 10% by wealth, and it is almost impossible in Russia to get in those top 10% if you have conscience.
I don’t know about my sense of right and wrong (some shit’s pretty fucked up in my head for sure), but back in the day, before the war, it was possible to work remotely for for foreign companies and earn good money without selling one’s soul to the devil.
When Crimea was annexed the writing on the wall was clear, so I made The Grind a priority, got fairly close to the top 10% (the real gap is corruption and having connections; net worth is something you have one day and lose the next one), and was able to leave with enough cash to keep me more than just afloat. And almost everyone I knew who was able to outsource their skills and wasn’t blind to what was happening, did the same thing: grind, save, move, settle down, live.
And then, when the war escalated into a whole different phase, I know some folks left Russia with a lot less than what I had - not piss poor but nowhere close to the top 10%. They had it a lot rougher, but the danger to their wellbeing and lives was more immediate. So I know you’re wrong about wealth being a requirement for leaving - it’s a huge boon that makes it a lot easier, but it’s certainly not a hard requirement.
Software engineering is (was) an affordable way to climb the social ladder. It is not impossible at all. SWE could have easily earn 5k+ USD which is enough to leave.
I'm not from an even remotely wealthy family, not a mafia and was able to move to the EU. Not exceptional by any means.
Quick search says that it is like 1.5k+ that get Russians in top 10%. How do you imagine leaving country with salary that way less then that, when there is practically no way for you to get job permit or asylum, and you will get yourself deported the second your travel visa expired?
> Software engineering is (was) an affordable way to climb the social ladder
But aren't those only supports my point? Among those 10% who has access to immigration, how many there are software engineers? And except them (and mafia members) who else can afford to move out of the Russia?
> I'm not from an even remotely wealthy family
5k+ USD Software Engineer salary in the Russia is literally top 2%. Sounds rather exceptional by me
I'm not arguing that it's difficult for an average Russian. My point is that "conscience" or its absence has little to do with your ability to leave. You don't have to be "mafia" or some sort of hustler.
It's easier for some professions as they have more mobility and skills are transferable. But I've seen people from all sorts of backgrounds.
There are some folks involved into crypto/gambling/other questionable companies but I would say they're minority and rarely move to EU/UK/US because of regulations and taxes.
> I'm not arguing that it's difficult for an average Russian.
But I am. It is difficult for the top 10%. For an average Russian? Straight impossible.
> My point is that "conscience" or its absence has little to do with your ability to leave.
It has everything to do with the ability to leave. Russian economic system by design prevent economic mobility for those outside of mafia. You either work for mafia or you have no way to get in the top 10%, with very little exceptions such as software engineering.
> It's easier for some professions as they have more mobility and skills are transferable.
No, it is not. It was easier for software developer, sure, but that is it. For any other professions they does not have any additional mobility if we are not talking about some extremely demanded qualification such as pilots or top 1% brain surgeons.
Russia is an extremely rich country, in natural resources and potential. But the governing class is worse than a mafia because mafia does not lead senseless wars outside of its territory while making their own (mafia) people worse off.
Your point is a good one but there are many people who left even when they couldn't really afford to and are stuck somewhere, but still won't return.
> * So generally it is impossible to leave Russia if you are not in top 10% by wealth, and it is almost impossible in Russia to get in those top 10% if you have conscience.*
I know or have heard about quite a few people not in that 10%, who were able to leave. Not sanctioned; they had to more or less sneak out. Now they're mostly living in various countries in SE Asia, where they've arrived with only what they could carry with them. The more fortunate/skilled among them have been able to do knowledge work online, but others have had to take on odd jobs and live fairly roughly.
And of course I've also read about Russians fleeing to Central Asian countries, as well as eastern Europe, and to other places.
But it means exactly the opposite. For some reason everybody thinks that for people (or even for only one man) who make decisions, Russian economy, talented people, and datacenters has great value or something.
But the only thing that matters is to remain in power. And invading your neighbors country have get those people exactly that.
Within the narrow scope of this
discussion, yes. Ukraine would have a harder time hitting data centers around Moscow if they didn’t share a land border.
But then again, American soldiers are not dying in that war the way Russian do. That would be different in war against neighbhood nation where you cant hide purely behind technology.
> awkward comparisons to certain other warmongering nations
What Russia is doing in Ukraine is closer to America in Vietnam or Israel in Gaza than anything even Trump has done recently. And I doubt you’ll find many on this forum defending even the latter.
Russians are avoiding to mention that Russia is at war(or military conflict, as officially it is still special operation) like this Muromec, as that is punishable offence in Russia. It is rather crazy situation as machine of repressions is escalating and requires more and more blood and it can only repress Russians, so they have to be cautious, in case they have commented anything wrong. It is interesting mindgame from afar as most people would think how to escape from that madness but you can't really help people that have imprisoned mind...
They are victims to the same propagandist brainwash that garbles the spelling of Ukraine, makes fun of the language and assigns asinine pejoratives to Ukrainians in Russian state-controlled media.
dont forget afghanistan, Iran Libya, Syria, etc etc. -_- none of these countries is doing well after their "liberation" or after their 'terrorists got bombed' or whatever wording (killed like dogs?) the current leader will have for it.
Out of these four, at least Syria is better off. Everything, literally everything is better than what the Assad regime was. The gruesomeness of Assad and his regime is on a level not seen since 1945.
Afghanistan was an utter failure of all of Western societies. Yes, we provided a generation worth of women with access to schools. But we never provided a way for Afghanistan as a country to stand on its own feet, instead we looked away while one half of the military didn't exist on paper and the other half raped children for funsies (look up "bacha bazi").
Libya... now that is mostly upon us Europeans. Ghaddafi, I'm glad this prick is gone, but again we didn't do anything to meaningfully help Libya grow, and by the time Putin began supporting oppositional warlords, the game was lost.
And Iran... oh dear god what a mess, dating back to the history of the US using Kurds for their aims and then letting them to die without support. This entire shitshow was a disaster from start to finish, even if the idea was noble - the Mullahs slaughtered tens of thousands of protestors the start of this year, it would have been incredibly unethical to just stand aside again.
> Everything, literally everything is better than what the Assad regime was. The gruesomeness of Assad and his regime is on a level not seen since 1945
Lolwut ? The Al-Qaeda head-chopper is in a distinct league of his own. He even had a US bounty on him before it was waived away. (US sponsored head-choppers are saintly you see)
He has already massacred thousands of civilians after he declared peace and took power last year. His presidency is Western appointed, not one elected. At the current rate of slaughter, within the next few years, he is going to make Assad like an innocent baby.
After a decade, he will be the next Osama bin Laden for commencing War on Terror 2.0 and his brand revamped into Evil #1 for upcoming generation of brainwashed US citizens.
syria is better off now in the sense that in Irak ppl also cheered for Sadam to go. There is yet to see what their future holds truly which in itself is an incredibly tedious place to be in as a civilian population.
these are still generations with much violence and suffering.
its hard to watch and for a long time even in academia etc. its been plain as day there are other approaches to bring people together than to force people together through violence, or to try and 'develop' places by forcing your own local developments on some remote peoples.
Feeling if Syria is better off really depends on what sect you are in. But the unhappy groups are being killed iff. Soon only the happy groups will remain.
The idea of nobly saving people is just “think of the children” on the nation-state level. It sounds great but gets used for every politician’s own ends.
> The idea of nobly saving people is just “think of the children” on the nation-state level. It sounds great but gets used for every politician’s own ends.
Well, there's the saying every nerd should know, "with great power comes great responsibility". We have to be caretakers of those who cannot defend themselves, but all we care about is making money, and that ruins the mission from the start.
I was in Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan not too long ago (both countries just to the south of Russia, for those not savvy of geography). Met plenty of young russians who moved there recently. I didn't have to ask why. Many of them used to work in the tech sector, it's easy for them to find new work.
Sadly, this applies also to Ukraine. No one in their right mind will risk their limbs for clique of oligarchs and mini-oligarchs. Coincidentally children of oligarchs and mini-oligarchs left both countries as well. They basically wiped out their male millenial generation entirely, as this demographics had it the most difficult to leave these countries.
It certainly does not. There is a huge and growing [1] (albeit still below ‘22 peak) tech outsourcing industry there.
Plus, likely Europe’s most advanced defense-industrial base for drones and, increasingly, missiles of all kinds. Being on the right side of a war works wonders for morale.
Ukraine's estimated population in 2022 was around 40 million. Various numbers provided by UN officials to Ukrainian govt officials have at various times put Ukrainian population (in govt controlled areas) at 35 million [1], 32 million [2], 22-25 million [3]. This with adult men being actively blocked from leaving Ukraine.
There are estimations that puts Russian population to 80 millions only. Probably population in Russia is slightly above that, but there is undeniable Russian migration out of country, that is not appearing in statistics with bias selection for smart young people(estimates that I've read couple of years ago put that Russian migration to 4 million) - which is nowhere comparable to Ukrainian situation, as these Russians are unable to make western companies to cooperate with Russia, or even return to Russia unlike what Ukrainians can do.
To be fair, I have never understood this obsession with Ukrainian numbers as some kind of proof that Ukraine is doomed. There are people that have sent their families abroad and returned to Ukraine to fight Russia. There are certainly also ethnic Russians that do not want to help Ukraine in this war, but on other side they do not want to join Russia either, as they would be sent to die for sure. Many reasons for many people what they do and why.
During WW1 my home country lost 50% of population, as many people escaped frontline - most of them returned and rebuilt everything.
I am very sure that Ukrainians after war will rebuild Ukraine - probably that will be another European center competing with Germany - unlike Russians, that are abroad now as they won't rebuild Russia - as Russia very surely will collapse. What would be built in the place of Russia is rather hard to tell right now, but I do not think that many Russians will want to return to that where they would be out of place in those new countries, just like they are out of place in modern Russia.
> estimates that I've read couple of years ago put that Russian migration to 4 million
I think a realistic figure is several hundred thousands. There is not so many rich Russians that can afford living abroad, and not everyone is a software developer.
My comment was not about migration, that started from February 2022, but includes also those that choose not to return because of war. The data for those that went abroad after 2022 is estimated to be 1 million, but this clearly is not casting whole net of people, that have dual citizenship or just being as tourists, which was the main case in initial stage of 2022 invasion. Yes, a majority of Russians have no capability to travel abroad, and ~80% have not traveled abroad, but 1 million young and among them hundreds of thousands ambitious mostly IT related specialists is a major loss to any big country - not to mention moderately large(by demographics) country as Russia.
Also, I would not trust ANY statistics coming from Russia. There is also significant difficulties to count how many people are actually outside of their country, like it was in the case of my home country, where statistics(that were not politically restricted, like it is in Russia) was nowhere near the ACTUAL numbers, which were significantly higher than what was even suggested.
I highly appreciate your fierce enthusiasm but nobody will come back to the ruined countries. No one below at least regional level oligarchy. The oligarchy will only consolidate and strengthen. They will bring in new people to replace the former native population, don't worry. Nationalism was only a poison intended for the (former) native population, its job is done. Russia will survive, Ukraine maybe will. Poland is not even at war and follows the same pattern - emigrants replaced by imported population, skyrocketing wealth inequalities.
I have moved away from my country - because I see no future there. And it has no ruins(not yet), but it is going towards it and eventually it will become ruined. It is depressing - to me.
Ukraine even with war going on looks more promising, as population has a hope - for better future and that matters a lot.
>>>No one below at least regional level oligarchy. The oligarchy will only consolidate and strengthen.
I do not share your negativity towards business owners, but it seems to be common trend here as well. For better or worst, but they follow the trend of society and and are driving force of any society. There is no alternative to them, but at this point there is a choice between Singapore or China model of people involved in state corporation - just like Europeans 100+ years ago choose Capitalism with Socialist face. Humans are social animals and that is what limits us same time also giving our main strength.
>>>Nationalism was only a poison
I think that modern corruption, have destroyed nationalism. The nation itself is an idea, that holds society together. When you have no unifying idea for a nation, it does not exist. The scourge of modern people is that they have no education in these topics, though they have some instinct level understanding that something is wrong.
>>>Russia will survive
I do not see why Russia would survive. How? With what? Putin has destroyed any social mechanisms, that makes state - Russians will have to build new state and I can't see how with ethnic Russians being chauvinistic racists towards significant part of their population. Russia basically is repeating history of Haiti - it will be torn apart by "tamed" ethnicities and nihilistic Russians themselves and even 1% radicals among them is enough to poison them to act destructively against Russians, that show no signs of regrets or guilt - this is actually insane combination of society of imminent self-destruct and I am very positive, that 100 million cannibals have no chances of survival against even couple of million of determined hunters bent on hunting them out to extinction.
Also, my prognosis puts into account things that have not happened yet, but Russians are are heading there for sure. Regardless, even if suddenly a miracle would happen and war would stop - Russia is a failed state that has lowest birth rates and highest mortality rates - everything is in ruins, access to medicine, state, roads, business a lot of criminals - not even counting those that are criminals in state level and army. It is a nightmare case to make out of Russia normal country. Couple of million of people have to be tried and lustrated - to just sift out worst sh!t. It is a mafia state - southern Italy is even super developed compared to what Russia is now.
>>>Ukraine maybe will. Poland is not even at war and follows the same pattern - emigrants replaced by imported population, skyrocketing wealth inequalities.
Frankly I don't think that it is justified to see history as linear evolution. Things change - we currently are experiencing changes, but they won't last in that quality for longer time. It is expected as status quo of power has to change - US, Russia, China - these three countries has to vanish or their power has to diminish and these are the only changes that will lead us into future. What you are seeing now are just a small waves - some of those are echoes from the past, like migration, that is linked with morality and egoism of businesses built on exploiting modern slavery and for the best and worst dislinked society from business and state.
I'm sorry to say this, but whole chaos that you despair is perfect fertile ground for new societies to raise in place - including state functions, which will eventually lead to what is a solution to what you do not see now. We are living in "interesting times", but for future generations that would not look like end of times you are painting.
I work for a Ukrainian product firm and interviewed around 50 people in the last quarter for in-office work. Some of them are migrants discouraged by european salaries where an entry-level IT professional can make as much as a waiter.
oh you can if you are younger than 23 and not in education. this exception initially started as "academic mobility" program - you had to somehow prove your intent to study before going abroad, I don't remember how - but then both govt and citizens realized that it's too much paperwork and impossible to organize properly, so the exception was generalized.
yeah, hating papers is our national trait at this point, given Diia and stuff XD
Why would "right now" matter if the war has been ongoing for 4.5 years? I live in Germany, many ukrainians moved here, had several coworkers and their families move.
If we’re imagining what should happen, maybe imagine no war at all. Until then, practical reality matters more than class resentment, however justified.
Edit: thanks for answers, this helps.