Here's a blog post we wrote a few years ago about it: http://blog.inklingmarkets... | Hacker News

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adam on March 11, 2013 | parent | context | favorite | on: Intrade Ceases Trading Activity

Here's a blog post we wrote a few years ago about it: http://blog.inklingmarkets.com/2008/05/judging-prediction-ma...

foobarqux on March 12, 2013 [–]

You don't specify when you are sampling the market. It often wouldn't be surprising, or useful, that a market correctly predicts an event the day before it occurs.

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