Agreed re: dilution - that's the reason I inserted "at stage X" in the original question on expected value.

$500k is life-changing money, but not FU-money. You think that not having to worry about rent and food and medical bills wouldn't change your life?

It isn't even life-changing money. It's most of a house here in Seattle, or a quarter of a house in the valley. That's nice, but not life-changing.

It could well be life-changing, depending on your circumstances and condition.

There are parts of the US where it's a big house and almost enough to retire on, if you're lazy and willing to live cheap. It's definitely a few years of runway, if you've got an idea you want to explore. It's definitely a no-loan college education.

True. It's a couple acres, a nice trailer, and a lifetime of property tax and utilities in Idaho.

Or a decent house in a nice neighborhood and $14k a year indefinitely in the Midwest.