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This is a high risk high reward gamble by Tesla. If people take this offer, they are basically getting to lease to own.

Musk is betting that the car will be so good that people will want to keep it.

If it's true, then buyers are getting a great deal and Tesla wins with a lot of cars on the market, and in turn, a lot of leverage to get their charging stations all over the place.

If it's not true, then it all goes to hell over a year period where people are returning them and Tesla is buying them back.

Musk is basically saying "there is nothing better than a Tesla, and I am willing to bet the farm on it."



"Musk is betting that the car will be so good that people will want to keep it."

Or that Tesla can sell "certified pre-owned" models for > the cost of the buyback.


True, but if owners are looking to return their Teslas en masse after 36 months the residual value will be a little less than the 43% they're apparently guaranteeing here.

It's not just a hedge against you ending up with a dud car either: you're also protected from a perfectly adequate '13 model's value being driven down by a new generation of Teslas which are drastically better (or better value). That's a worthwhile guarantee for the early-adopter of a physical product in a rapidly evolving market

Expect the most dramatic innovations from Tesla to come in 2017 and beyond then... :-)


It's not a problem if people change their car for a new Tesla model when reaching maturity.

Also as another HNer remarked, don't forget there is probably a second hand market.




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