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2 and 4 will be solved by 1. Currently very very few places accept BitCoin as a form of payment and because of that the value is disconnected from everything but the commodities market (MtGox and other currency exchanges). Normal commodities have uses outside of stores of value, E.G. gold is useful both for aesthetic reasons (jewelry) as well as functional ones (good conductor), which help to add stability to their values on the commodities market. Because the current primary use of BitCoin is solely as a commodity to be traded, the "value" of BitCoin is massively subject to fluctuation, minor changes in investment by the commodities market lead to massive swings in value.

If BitCoin can survive long enough to see more widespread adoption of it as a currency that should go a long way towards helping to tamp down the swings in value we currently see occurring.



I'm doubtful about BitCoin becoming less volatile in the future. Perhaps in the very long term, but not within the next few years.

At the moment, merchants who accept bitcoin set prices natively in USD, and convert bitcoin to USD immediately (or risk currency losses). Bitcoin will become more stable once merchants set prices natively in BTC, regardless of the USD exchange rate. This is the case for example in Europe, where the EUR/USD fluctuations have little effect on the everyday purchasing power. This can realistically happen only once the majority of their expenses (salaries, suppliers, etc.) are also priced natively in BTC. But given that only USD is legal tender by law in the U.S., employees, suppliers and IRS can always refuse your bitcoin, and make the exchange rate an issue.

Another problem in at least the next few years is that a small group of early miners of Bitcoin hold the majority of the money supply. Until they have cashed out, they have the ability to flood the exchange with far more supply than there is demand from new users, making the long-term storage value risky.


> If BitCoin can survive long enough to see more widespread adoption of it as a currency

My question is why would it see widespread adoption? The only reasons I can think of are: it allows anonymous online transactions, has low transaction costs, is not backed by a government, and is interesting on a tech level. I am not sure these reasons are good enough to cause widespread adoption.


Low transaction costs translates directly into increased profit margin. Surely every business wants that?


Businesses want low transaction costs, but most business face competition and the customer decides the transaction medium. For instance, my company accepts paypal, not because I like it but rather my customers do.

Of course a company with monopoly power could force adoption. For instance Bitcoin would take off if your utility companies only accepted bitcoins, but I don't think that is likely.




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