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In a couple points. Much of the advice may be more valid for overt CIA operations than in Snowden's case. Snowden is writing his own rulebook and it is based on a fairly narrow array of relatively novel tactics plus more standard tools I suspect he picked up in his special forces training (remember he has at least some special forces training).

A careful look at Snowden's tactics is that he is working off an understanding at how to play various groups and people off eachother. He has a keen sense of what everyone's interests are. His goal is not to be invisible but rather to be too hot to handle for anyone.



I'd like to clarify the bit about his Special Forces 'training'. He did not receive any.

There is a program that he signed for called the 'X-ray' program (18X). It affords the enlistee a pipeline directly to Special Forces Assessment and Selection (SFAS). There is no faster way to go to SFAS than the 18X program.

The 18X program begins with 16 weeks of Infantry training followed by 3 weeks of Airborne school. This is not Special Forces training, however. It isn't even around Special Forces personnel- not even in the same state. Those 19 weeks encapsulate the period of time leading up to his "training accident" that resulted in his separation.

Had he completed Infantry OSUT and Airborne, he would have been sent to a 4 week preparation and conditioning course and then given a slot for SFAS (which is another 3 weeks). At that point, he STILL would have had ZERO Special Forces training. He's only been assessed for toughness and fitness generally speaking. Were he selected, he would begin the Special Forces Qualification Course (SFQC). During the time he enlisted, had he actually entered the SFQC, he would have begun with a preparation course for Small Unit Tactics (3 weeks). The closest to Special Forces training he'd have at the conclusion of that course would be land navigation and patrolling. No guerrilla warfare. No survival school. Nada.

His tactics are not so novel. He's taken "by, with, and through" from indigenous personnel to state agency.


I don't think he got much if any special forces training. Basic + AIT is about 13 weeks. Jump school is 3 weeks. He left after four months, so that's before or at SF preliminary tryouts. He probably picked up a few things when he was working in the intel field, though.


His choice of HK was very game theoretic.


I wish more people understood the situation like you, but there are many fickle HN users who are silly putty in the hands of big media.


Also according to some sources he has been planning for years (according to some sources he held off in 2008 because he was hoping for action by Obama). He is uncommonly bright and prepared. I don't think the choice of regions or timing can be a coincidence at all. He announced he was in Hong Kong when the leaders of both Hong Kong and China were in the US, and he has managed to very skilfully play various groups off eachother.

He almost comes across as too prepared. Occasionally I have wondered if someone was coaching him, but if he has been planning for years, he could have half a million dollars stashed somewhere (or at least a sizeable fraction of that), and he may simply have spotted his opportunity and known it wouldn't come again.


On the other hand, I would have thought that he might have been better off just letting himself get arrested in the US. He has the attention of the world, and every time his case moved in court he would be on the front pages again. I can't imagine the US government having the courage to face the public opprobrium that would come with placing a whistleblower acting for the people in prison. This guy is no Bradley Manning - he wasn't revealing legitimate US state secrets that could put innocent people in danger, he was revealing potentially illegal behaviour of the US government with respect to its own citizens.

Whilst on the run however he can be "disappeared". How do we tell the difference between a Snowden lying low in some forgotten corner of the world, and a Snowden chained up in some forgotten US prison cell, or a Snowden burned to ashes in a car in Afghanistan? In both cases he is invisible to us. Dangerous, dangerous game. In fact it's so dangerous it's bordering on unbelievable for me.


Let's not forget he's also been able to see how the US has treated cases like Manning and Assange and learn from those situations.

I'm fully expecting that Snowden has prepared some kind of "insurance file" ala Assange and made sure it's set up and triggered to go in case he's suddenly taken into custody and rendered into parts unknown. He's hinted as much in his initial Guardian interview (e.g. "there's a lot more here but I don't want to hurt anybody personally").




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