You don't pick and choose what breakthroughs in technology, science and medicine will result from the Space Program (as has already been demonstrated). Simply developing one solution leads to a plethora of others that will go on to benefit society in numerous unforeseen ways.
NASA puts out a wonderful publication of the branches and side products, services and technologies that has come about as a result of the space program thus far (this is since the moon landing). Hint: It's more than just "Velcro".
Space programs of Mars exploration caliber stimulates all, read that word again please, all branches of sciences. All branches of engineering. All branches of mathematics. All branches of biology and medicine. The benefit to society is nearly incalculable, but if you must put a dollar amount, it's well above a paltry $trillion (the actual cost will be in the billions, far less than the monthly consumption of the pointless war in Iraq).
The tragedy that plagues all of our generations, it seems, is that great feats that suddenly leaps in progress in all areas of our lives have to fight through an insurmountable myopia. Similar to what happened soon after landing on the moon.
Part of me hopes China colonizes Mars first. America is long overdue for a lesson in hubris. Maybe they'll appreciate the new breakthroughs in the above mentioned fields more than the American populace can.
I'm all for a Mars colony, if we're debt free and it's paid for with cash. We just can't afford the investment now. It really isn't a case of "can't afford to not do it".
If China colonizes Mars, Americans will almost certainly reap the benefits you describe, at little cost. It wouldn't be a lesson in hubris so much as smart to step aside.
It actually is. The U.S. hasn't ever been "debt free" however arbitrarily that's determined. The late 60's - 70's wasn't a great time for the U.S. economically since the 50's boom was starting to wind down.
What really triggered growth afterwards, setting the stage for the early 80's boom, was the space program. Specifically the myriad of branch industries, technologies and services it spawned both directly and indirectly.
In plain words: Space builds jobs and we really can't afford not to do it.
Once Russia lost the moon, they were already in sour shape. They had arguably better technology to do what they did (the N1, though ridiculed for being overly complex, was actually based on proven technology and in-house innovation), they were safer and more cautious. The U.S. "won" not just because the N1 failed, but the agency and the political sphere took grave risks (costing 3 astronauts their lives).
But as Tyson himself says, there are only three main drivers for exploration:
1) The "I don't want to die" driver. Apollo falls under this since those damn Commies were involved.
2) The "I don't want to die poor" driver. The Columbus voyages fall under this
3) The praise of royalty and deities (don't see much of this except for the 700 Club and Scientology; are they building spaceships?)
The first two are sort of contained in a race against China. If the U.S. "loses", it will suffer the same fate as Russia; irrelevance.
"Build jobs" isn't a good enough reason. Chairman Mao built lots of jobs by having people melt their pans to create new pans. The Great Chinese Famine came next, predictably.
If the jobs create more benefit than not, you're right. But space programs don't do that, not today anyway. Nowadays they are closer to melting pans to create new pans than they are to mining ore to make new pans.
Suppose we got our laptops today because of the Apollo program. Will we get 10X faster computers because of a Mars colony? Unlikely. And even if we could, it's more efficient to get that benefit from investment directly into computers rather than indirectly through a Mars colony. I don't buy the argument that we must have a super lofty goal to get the side benefits we really wanted.
This is all academic anyway. The US really can't afford a Mars colony, as in people won't loan us the money at sufficiently low interest. The interest rates the US pays have been creeping up. Things may seem rosy at the moment but the house of cards is actually crumbling. The US now spends $220 billion annually on interest on debt, projected to reach $1 trillion in just 7 years. Even without added debt for Mars colonization the consequences of our borrowing will surely be severe within a decade. Paying down our debt is the best big investment we can make.
You can't honestly believe that we've made all of the advances in space flight that we can. This is certainly not a pan-melting exercise.
Building self-sustaining habitats in a zero-g, irradiated environment where resupply is extremely infrequent is very different from building Apollo or the Space Shuttle. You could argue that the ISS is a stab at this, but it's not self-sustaining at all. Maybe someday, but we haven't done it.
The construction of a colony on Mars wouldn't be a PR or purely scientific exercise, either. If it's enabled by having jumpoff points near the Earth and Mars, there will be enormous advances in robotics, because the potential payoff will be huge. The first company to successfully mine asteroids will reap a huge windfall in platinum and other metals that are rare on Earth. These metals becoming cheaper and more abundant will have large effects on the terrestrial economy because suddenly, whole new classes of devices become cost-effective (fuel cells, for example).
There will be other advances in science from this, beyond the pedestrian "make existing tech faster" stuff, and it's not make-work. What you're saying now is exactly the myopia he's referring to, and the costs involved are not even on the scale of a pointless war.
You make good points. Like I said, I support a Mars colony under the right conditions. I say it's myopia to ignore a much better investment. All the benefits you name pale in comparison to the benefits (or loss savings) of paying down the debt. If we proceeded on a Mars colony now, the US would likely slip into a Greater Depression before we could reap a benefit large enough to prevent that. Due in part to those wars we're too close to the abyss. The best choice is to get away from the abyss before focusing attention elsewhere.
