I doubt it. Culture is key. Being in the right place at the right time, having a network of folks interested in your welfare, etc is key.
Think of it this way -- how many smart people from school or childhood do you know who didn't amount to much, despite the raw ability to achieve. Now think about your work life -- how many times have worked for or witnessed a blithering idiot in charge of thing at your job or a customers org?
Well to be cynical - if most people are blithering idiots and most people don't amount to much, it could be true that most smart people don't amount to much and most people in charge are idiots while still true that being smart makes you much more likely to be in charge :o)
Think of it this way -- how many smart people from school or childhood do you know who didn't amount to much, despite the raw ability to achieve. Now think about your work life -- how many times have worked for or witnessed a blithering idiot in charge of thing at your job or a customers org?
Culture matters.