there is definitely an element of "luck" (timing, what other actors in the relevant space are doing, etc.)
but the way you hedge against that is by exposing yourself to lots of things with a potential net upside. both in parallel and serially. you might have bad luck with one thing, then good luck with another thing. just like the reasoning behind YC-style investment bets, it only takes one of your little bets to pay off huge in order to more than make up for all the other little failures. which leads to the other complimentary tactic: minimize your spend (money,time,energy) you're willing to risk on any given thing before you see an ROI from it. Also, you never have to completely give up on a thing --- in the software/digital world especially you don't have to destroy/delete/throwaway things, you simply passivate them (put on the backburner), press Pause, etc.
but the way you hedge against that is by exposing yourself to lots of things with a potential net upside. both in parallel and serially. you might have bad luck with one thing, then good luck with another thing. just like the reasoning behind YC-style investment bets, it only takes one of your little bets to pay off huge in order to more than make up for all the other little failures. which leads to the other complimentary tactic: minimize your spend (money,time,energy) you're willing to risk on any given thing before you see an ROI from it. Also, you never have to completely give up on a thing --- in the software/digital world especially you don't have to destroy/delete/throwaway things, you simply passivate them (put on the backburner), press Pause, etc.