For anyone arguing that there is some causation behind a startup's success besides "luck", I challenge you to prove it.
It is not easy to prove causation.
For example, startup says "We did X and this was the direct cause of Y", where X is some random thing, and Y is "success". That is difficult to prove. And startups never say that. They just say "We did X." Maybe they also say they believe this was crucial somehow to their success. But they never try to prove causation.
Of course, no one demands anyone to prove causation when it comes to the actions and the success of any startup. The scientifc method does not apply here. We are happy to listen to someone tell us about what a startup did, about their eventual success and then let our imaginations make the supposed causal connections.
I do not think it's unreasonable to question, as does the OP, whether "luck" is a proper explanation for the success of a startup. If it were, then that leaves startups free to make their own rules instead of believing they must do X in order to produce Y. And I say that is fine. The fact is, doing X might not bring about Y for every startup that does X. Clearly there is more to this than a "formula", whether it is the YC's or someone else's.
It is not easy to prove causation.
For example, startup says "We did X and this was the direct cause of Y", where X is some random thing, and Y is "success". That is difficult to prove. And startups never say that. They just say "We did X." Maybe they also say they believe this was crucial somehow to their success. But they never try to prove causation.
Of course, no one demands anyone to prove causation when it comes to the actions and the success of any startup. The scientifc method does not apply here. We are happy to listen to someone tell us about what a startup did, about their eventual success and then let our imaginations make the supposed causal connections.
I do not think it's unreasonable to question, as does the OP, whether "luck" is a proper explanation for the success of a startup. If it were, then that leaves startups free to make their own rules instead of believing they must do X in order to produce Y. And I say that is fine. The fact is, doing X might not bring about Y for every startup that does X. Clearly there is more to this than a "formula", whether it is the YC's or someone else's.