It literally means delayed in time, we use it in physics a lot, in the context of people and development it applies to those whose education (or cognitive ability) is delayed in time.
I think the word is typically pronounced slightly differently (more correctly?) when used that way. This clip from The Hangover uses the slight differences in pronounciation for comedic effect: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PoendYt_ZJ0 (skip to 0:45, video contains mildly offensive humor).
Obviously the obsolete medical usage, now offensive usage, is just the regular word meaning delayed, but I think that somehow that specialized usage strayed from the generic usage over time.
Well, no, a mentally "retarded" person is not expected to develop further. They're behind, but nobody thinks they'll catch up. "Stunted" would be a more accurate term than "retarded"; the latter is just a euphemism.