(To be pedantic) I don't. I allow that VC information and experience supply no information about the outcome, and that the failure rates of VC-backed projects and Kickstarter projects could be identical. I didn't allow for information and experience negatively effecting VC success rates, though.
edit: I accept that that's entirely possible, I just think it's a better subject for a academic study than for a rule of thumb.
(I know, it's rhetorical. VCs get a lot more information and have a lot more experience than Kickstarter backers.)