Success is a matter of expectations and degree. Uber is clearly capable of providing success in the form of "make a popular service that people use and which has value," and I'd say like 95% certain, "that is capable of turning a sustained profit."
But they've raised money at a $17 billion+ valuation, from people who invested on the theory that they at least have a shot at a x5 profit -- so they need to target a valuation of $100 billion or so.
Which means that "make a popular service that people use and which has value and that is capable of turning a sustained profit" is now abject failure for them.
Success for Uber looks like "become part of the fundamental infrastructure of large parts of the world." It is NOT clear that they are on track to do that, and failure to do that is a real possibility, in a way that "failure to have a popular service that can make money" is not really a possibility.
But they've raised money at a $17 billion+ valuation, from people who invested on the theory that they at least have a shot at a x5 profit -- so they need to target a valuation of $100 billion or so.
Which means that "make a popular service that people use and which has value and that is capable of turning a sustained profit" is now abject failure for them.
Success for Uber looks like "become part of the fundamental infrastructure of large parts of the world." It is NOT clear that they are on track to do that, and failure to do that is a real possibility, in a way that "failure to have a popular service that can make money" is not really a possibility.