I'm wondering at which week does your simulation become usable?
I've work on this problem as a side project before but with the goal of being able to make this kind of prediction from Week 1. I would be able to compute various probabilities about who would win Divisions, but figuring out anything outside of a division would become computationally prohibitive. In my attempt I used a probability distribution based on historical performance of the home team instead of giving each team an equal chance of winning.
Since they use a coin flip to determine who wins each game, running the simulation on week 1 would give each team an equal chance of making the playoffs.
Actually it would be interesting to know if the NFL rules / schedule give some teams advantages from the start.
If games are a coin flip, I believe the answer to your question is "no". Every team plays exactly 6 division games, 6 conference games, and 4 non-conference games. Those are the only non-points-scored, non-coin-toss variables in the playoff algorithm, so if no one has played a game yet, every team is identical.
I'm wondering at which week does your simulation become usable?
I've work on this problem as a side project before but with the goal of being able to make this kind of prediction from Week 1. I would be able to compute various probabilities about who would win Divisions, but figuring out anything outside of a division would become computationally prohibitive. In my attempt I used a probability distribution based on historical performance of the home team instead of giving each team an equal chance of winning.
Anyway, looking forward to seeing your code!