I'm not sure how well we can estimate how difficult a task is just based on our amazement at "iceberg complexity".
Just the fact that I was able to read that article the way I did is the product of something enormous. Discovery of electricity and semiconductors, mathematics, development of CPUs and memory, global computer networks, the entire software stack that allows me to display what someone wrote three years ago on a glowing rectangle with no involvement of any paper at all. The entire social and economic development that allows me to read this instead of walking through the woods and trying to impale some creature on an arrow.
That's a lot of solved problems, most of them figured out during the past century. I don't think some image segmentation, pose estimation and semantic reasoning is going to take quite as long, especially with more and more people working on it.
Just the fact that I was able to read that article the way I did is the product of something enormous. Discovery of electricity and semiconductors, mathematics, development of CPUs and memory, global computer networks, the entire software stack that allows me to display what someone wrote three years ago on a glowing rectangle with no involvement of any paper at all. The entire social and economic development that allows me to read this instead of walking through the woods and trying to impale some creature on an arrow.
That's a lot of solved problems, most of them figured out during the past century. I don't think some image segmentation, pose estimation and semantic reasoning is going to take quite as long, especially with more and more people working on it.