> But I have an enormous respect for this man, just making rockets affordable is a great service for humanity.
His business means rockets are going to go from $400 million to $150 million. That's nice and all, but it's not an extraordinary revolution. For equivalent, or cheaper rockets, see the Indian space program. They've launched rockets to Mars for cheap already.
I don't get the millennials adulation for him, either. Seems like a random guy for so many millennials to latch onto.
My guess is, because millennials never grew up with the amazing Apollo or Space Shuttle era, they feel Elon is somehow doing something novel and innovative, even with the Indian/Chines space programs going on as well.
If you want to see some sci-fi magic, just look at the Space Shuttle, That's some amazing witchcraft right there. The ideas NASA were throwing around in the 70's were insane. They were talking about constructing giant space stations with multiple shuttle vehicles at a time, with artificial gravity. Too bad Nixon killed their funding.
> His business means rockets are going to go from $400 million to $150 million. That's nice and all, but it's not an extraordinary revolution.
Rockets didn't cost $400 million before SpaceX. You could already get a satellite into geostationary orbit for about $70 million -- or rather, you would have been able to, if politics hadn't intervened.
Twenty years ago, the Chinese were major players in the launch services market. They picked up quite a bit of business after the Challenger explosion. One of the two commercial satellites that was retrieved by STS-51A was re-launched on a Chinese rocket. One-fifth of the original Iridium constellation was launched on Chinese rockets.
In the late 1990s, the United States banned launches on Chinese rockets if the satellite had any American parts. That meant that no Western satellites could be launched on Chinese rockets. What happens to prices when the low bidder isn't allowed to bid? You guessed it.
What SpaceX has accomplished so far is to restore prices to where they would be if the Chinese had stayed in the market. It's impressive that they can match "the China price" from California. However, it's not exactly revolutionizing the industry yet.
A large communications satellite costs hundreds of millions of dollars. A large military satellite costs over $1 billion. Launch costs are simply not the constraining factor in the satellite industry.
However, SpaceX is promising to drive costs even lower through reusability. Then we'll see if there's actually as much price elasticity in launch services as Elon Musk is expecting. That will ultimately determine SpaceX's legacy, whether it is a revolution or not.
> If you want to see some sci-fi magic, just look at the Space Shuttle, That's some amazing witchcraft right there.
A reusable spacecraft that costs more than an expendable launcher?
>You could already get a satellite into geostationary orbit for about $70 million -- or rather, you would have been able to, if politics hadn't intervened.
Going to Mars is a first step. It wouldn't surprise me if large space stations with artificial gravity come about someday either - and come about much sooner than they otherwise would have if Musk hadn't decided to pursue his goal of making humans a multiplanet species.
Anyway, perhaps I could have worded things differently as I didn't mean to imply he had the exact same visions as those from the 70's, just that he decided to go after grand ideas now that the government decided it isn't worth their money.
His business means rockets are going to go from $400 million to $150 million. That's nice and all, but it's not an extraordinary revolution. For equivalent, or cheaper rockets, see the Indian space program. They've launched rockets to Mars for cheap already.
I don't get the millennials adulation for him, either. Seems like a random guy for so many millennials to latch onto.
My guess is, because millennials never grew up with the amazing Apollo or Space Shuttle era, they feel Elon is somehow doing something novel and innovative, even with the Indian/Chines space programs going on as well.
If you want to see some sci-fi magic, just look at the Space Shuttle, That's some amazing witchcraft right there. The ideas NASA were throwing around in the 70's were insane. They were talking about constructing giant space stations with multiple shuttle vehicles at a time, with artificial gravity. Too bad Nixon killed their funding.