With Microsoft's recent friendliness to CyanogenMod, I'm thinking the latter is pretty likely. Combining this with a good competitor bundle to replace the "Google Apps" package that generally goes hand-in-hand with installing CyanogenMod on a phone (so including Outlook, a mobile Office, Cortana, some Bing stuff, etc.) would be at least a decent strategy. So, instead of downloading a "gapps" package to be flashed alongside CyanogenMod, a user could instead (or even in addition) download a "mapps" package that would give the user a more Microsofty experience. Hell, maybe Amazon could get in on this with an "aapps" package for things like their custom app store, Amazon Video/Music/Kindle, etc. (which would, granted, compete with their own forays into Android, but they already make these things available to normal Android devices anyway).