However, what are you trying to forecast here? In terms of personal finance, the single most important thing to get right is the budget, which is more about planning, and not about forecasting. Everything else is nice, but unless you've got a solid budget module, the app will useless.
However:
> #3. my app will not connect to your bank account
Make sure you can process OFX, QFX, and QIF files so that users can clear transactions and reconcile accounts.
> #6. Hack-free web app
Big claim.
>I am still thinking how to monetize this, because I don't want to put up any ad network (at least annual costs: 15$ domain + 120$ hosting)
Why do you think forecasting is a paid feature? Your value proposition to me is not that it's free. It's the level of anonymity you offer.
1. YNAB is over complicated (just mho), but still has stuccess.
2. Forecasting (more like planning): at this moment I have X in my account. I have a big event in about 90 days from now.
I want the app to "learn" from my past months transactions(expenses & income), create a spending pattern and give me some scenarios: the optimist, pessimist and the probable one.
Currently I am trying this in excel...but doesn't work as planned. I want the app to be able "think" in advance.
Eg. you set a goal: $3,000 cash in next 3 months. Then the app should do: check what you did in the past 3 months, check last year on this time if you have any insurance to cover (car, house...etc, yearly recurring transactions) and the result should be: well, you can't gather $3,000 because you might spend them on: X, Y, Z. If you eliminate one of them, you reach your goal. Some kind of rudimentary artificial intelligence.
3. thanks for OFX, QFX and QIF.
4. Honestly, I want to build something that matters. I think I can support these yearly costs, even with a donate button (no ads).
5. Everywhere the forecasting/planning feature is a paid one.
6. As I initially said, I am trying to plan it as anonymous as possible: the data will be tied to an oauth userID, nothing more.
YNAB is probably one of the simplest budgeting applications in the market. It's successful because it only does budgeting, has extensive training, has a strong community, and emphasizes fiscal responsibility as a lifestyle. However, it's aim is for people who realize they need a budget, but don't know how to do it.
> 4. Honestly, I want to build something that matters. I think I can support these yearly costs, even with a donate button (no ads).
I think we all do, but if you set out to build "something that matters", you're setting yourself up for massive disappointment. Either define a market and build for them, or build the tool for yourself, and tell others about it. Before you can make $100, you need to make $1.
Your comments about forecasting are interesting. The biggest issue with it is variability. You can develop a plan to make $3000 in 3 months, but then have an unexpected car repair that your car repair fund can't fully cover. However, I don't think that's a strong enough argument to deter you from doing it.
I guess my questions would be how strong are you at budgeting and ML?
I really want to use YNAB but the reality for me is that I have many different accounts for various reasons. I used to do the manual uploads and reconciliation via importing flat files into Quicken but it just took too much time out of my life.
However, what are you trying to forecast here? In terms of personal finance, the single most important thing to get right is the budget, which is more about planning, and not about forecasting. Everything else is nice, but unless you've got a solid budget module, the app will useless.
However: > #3. my app will not connect to your bank account
Make sure you can process OFX, QFX, and QIF files so that users can clear transactions and reconcile accounts.
> #6. Hack-free web app Big claim.
>I am still thinking how to monetize this, because I don't want to put up any ad network (at least annual costs: 15$ domain + 120$ hosting)
Why do you think forecasting is a paid feature? Your value proposition to me is not that it's free. It's the level of anonymity you offer.