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99% chance it's an air force UAV.

Look at the nearby Davis-Monthan Air Force base: https://www.google.com/maps/search/Davis-Monthan+Air+Force+B...

A plethora of planes, helicopters, and 3 big doppler radar domes.

I guarantee the air force were tracking it, probably because it's their baby. The only reason we even heard about it is the police reports, and they weren't in the loop.

The Air Force is not guaranteed to disclose what they do to the local cops, and might use them as a training exercise in fact.



While it is certainly possible it’s military, I’d say it’s not as likely as you would think. Consider:

1. This drone does not fit the description of any known DOD drone, so you should assume it’s classified. The DOD is meticulous about only flying classified aircraft in restricted airspace where they can prevent prying eyes and inadvertent attention. Tucson is not immediately close to any of the usual hotspots for classified aircraft (Area 51 for example).

2. The article describes the drone buzzing the original CBP chopper as well as flying an orbit around the police helicopter. It is reasonable to suggest that a collision between the drone and either of those helicopters would be fatal for the pilot. No military pilot I know would ever create the type of risky scenario as described here.

3. Classified and unclassified aircraft are not just operated by a dude that hops into a plane or sits down at a drone console. They’re planned out. They’re also not operated in a vacuum. If your scenario of a classified drone operating in this airspace were true, and the drone was picked up by a friendly chopper, the operator would most likely immediately land safely and have someone reach out to the pilots and let them know not to mess with the aircraft. They would certainly not go rogue and risk a major accident or fatality.

4. I consider it highly unlikely the DOD would ever use other agency resources to unwittingly run training Ops. That seems like a career-ending move.


I can't speak for the whole of DOD but there is serious consideration that goes into training flights, with respect to not violating any local laws and especially not fucking with local agencies. It would be unfathomable for this kind of thing to happen in a military training or testing exercise without a serious cascade of errors. Also, I would have to imagine that any supervisor involved would have immediately contacted the civilian agency involved to say "it's us, please back off."


I think it’s worth looking into a possible involvement of naval pilots, as sometimes even the best of the best write cheques their body can’t cash or buzz the tower without clearance.


You’re aware Top Gun is fictional, right?



Surely when the Camp Pendleton Ospreys fly within a literal stones throw of my house or just above the beach on their training routes they are violating every reasonable airspace law there is. LAPD police helicopters don't even fly as low as some of these osprey or other obnoxiously loud military helicopter over LA.


Or they thought they had a stealthy little bird the locals wouldn't ever see, and got busted.

Being full of human beings out military is fallible.

>Also, I would have to imagine that any supervisor involved would have immediately contacted the civilian agency involved to say "it's us, please back off."

I would imagine them doing no such thing. Most of the nuclear program wasn't disclosed to anyone until Kodak discovered it on their own.

Our military has a host of secrets and everyone in it does their sincere best to keep them, particularly when ordered to.

>would have immediately contacted the civilian agency involved to say "it's us, please back off."

If the civilian agencies - or any entity really - doesn't have "need to know", they won't be told a thing. Based on this thing escaping, they don't need to know anything at all.


> Based on this thing escaping, they don't need to know anything at all

Or you're wrong and it's not what you think it is, but seeing all your replies it's clear you're already set on what to believe.

I expected better epistemic humility from a username like that.


Do you have hard evidence that the "fallible military" would deliberately confuse and frighten a civilian pilot, or that such incidents are common enough to make this a plausible explanation?



FWIW I upvoted you for contributing to the conversation but...

>1. This drone does not fit the description of any known DOD drone, so you should assume it’s classified.

I wouldn't. And I've held a secret clearance. Not fitting any "known" DoD drone means absolutely nothing.

>The DOD is meticulous about only flying classified aircraft in restricted airspace where they can prevent prying eyes and inadvertent attention.

Except for when they aren't.

>3. Classified and unclassified aircraft are not just operated by a dude that hops into a plane or sits down at a drone console. They’re planned out. They’re also not operated in a vacuum. If your scenario of a classified drone operating in this airspace were true, and the drone was picked up by a friendly chopper, the operator would most likely immediately land safely and have someone reach out to the pilots and let them know not to mess with the aircraft.

You can always spot a layman talking about this when they talk about things as "classified" or "unclassified". Classified what is the relevant question. Confidential? Secret? Top Secret? ???

>4. I consider it highly unlikely the DOD would ever use other agency resources to unwittingly run training Ops.

It's a good simulation of what a similarly advanced country might have on hand. The US, China, and Russia routinely conduct "response time" checks by putting a proverbial toe in each other's airspace to test response times and responses in general. The idea that they would never do it with American organizations is presumptuous. Our respective militaries pay close attention it when it happens but aren't particularly alarmed by it because it's not rare.


I'm not going to debate you line by line other than to say that I have worked these programs, am working one now, and you would be surprised how mundane and scripted they are. There are no tests like you describe, that is bullshit.


You didn't actually refute any of the points above, you only disagreed without any actual reasoning.


Which is exactly what I would do when I had signed strict NDAs...


Would you? Because NDAs are about not talking about something, not just not confirming. By denying some statements you'd probably still violate an NDA.


Yeah, maybe you're right. My experience with NDAs is indeed limited. At least that naive thought crossed my mind, which might be true for OP as well.


true but in the case of 'Not fitting any "known" DoD drone means absolutely nothing.' I found that text enough to pinpoint the logical error in the original argument, to wit, every DoD drone was at some point unknown and thus not recognizable as such - whether or not such drones had any particular security clearance attached to them.

I think point 4 was argued against with some actual reasoning.


I suspect your comments on this story will not age well.


>No military pilot I know would ever create the type of risky scenario as described here.

While I agree with your general sentiments, I vehemently disagree with that point. I have no doubt there are endless undocumented instances, but here's a pretty major public one:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1998_Cavalese_cable_car_cras...


> This drone does not fit the description of any known DOD drone, so you should assume it’s classified. The DOD is meticulous about only flying classified aircraft in restricted airspace

I think the most likely explanation is somewhere between. Plenty of private companies work on tech that is then sold to the DOD and classified (and they continue to produce for the military), but before it is released it is not technically classified.


> The article describes the drone buzzing the original CBP chopper as well as flying an orbit around the police helicopter. It is reasonable to suggest that a collision between the drone and either of those helicopters would be fatal for the pilot. No military pilot I know would ever create the type of risky scenario as described here.

Here's a video of CPB buzzing a crowd in a helicopter kicking up rocks at them. This happened 2 weeks ago. https://twitter.com/i/status/1401952522319843329

The idea of idiot pilots doing asshole things to other people is par for the course. No reason why this couldn't be military assholes either.


Because CBP encourages assholes, while the military usually kicks them out (at least if they're assholes to civilians). One of the two values discipline, and it's not CBP.


Tucson may not be close to any of the major suspects for classified aircraft, but it is close to a major hub for drones. Fort Huachuca and Libby airfield where the US does most of its drone training are less than 60 miles away.


> No military pilot I know would ever create the type of risky scenario as described here.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1998_Cavalese_cable_car_cras...

20 dead, pilot destroyed a videotape filmed from the plane during the crash.


> No military pilot I know would ever create the type of risky scenario

That depends fully on what type of military pilots you know.


“Tower, this is Ghost Rider, requesting a flyby.”

“Negative Ghost Rider, the pattern is full.”

* WWWWWHHHHhhhoooooosh! *

"Goddamn that guy."


> While it is certainly possible it’s military, I’d say it’s not as likely as you would think. Consider:

Whose military?

Lots of US military bases in Arizona, certainly spies must be everywhere there.


Tucson is very close to the border though.


Nope. The Air Force doesn't conduct unauthorized UAV flights in civilian airspace. They're paranoid about causing an embarrassing incident that gets a general hauled in to Congress for questioning.


And the NSA does not spy on Americans.


Wish I could upvote this 100 times.

Testing occurs with a manufacturer before it reaches unit level. No program manager or contract pilot is going to risk his ticket or the program integrity to do a test like this. Or worst of all, not get paid because of a program deviation or black mark.

Once a vehicle reaches unit level it is typically in inventory with somewhat mundane and scripted test patterns for personnel to stay sharp.

The guy saying he has (had?) a secret clearance and they do testing "except when they don't" want to follow the rules is watching too much Netflix.


No way congress would do that if the matter is top secret


Congress has closed session hearings every week to discuss Top Secret issues.


All major US cities are close to USAF bases. "use them as a training exercise" is ludicrous. The last thing a secret aircraft program needs is involvement from officers in public safety, whose job it is to publicize these events. You don't want your secret aircraft known to the public.


It doesn’t completely disprove your theory, but that base is a well-known boneyard: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aircraft_boneyard


A "boneyard" with three doppler radar stations with diameters close to half of a B-52's wingspan. They saw this UAV the whole time it was in their airspace or I have a bridge to sell you.


Yep, there's a museum there that'll take you on a bus tour of the boneyard (or at least, it did like 15 years ago or so when I was there).

You can see a bunch of (I think) B-52's with their tails chopped off. Iirc, they did that to comply with arms reduction treaties with what was the Soviet Union. They left them out in the desert like that so that spy satellites (and now Google maps) can spot them and verify that, yes, those planes were really destroyed.


Is it a boneyard, or is it just a boneyard?


100% chance it's made up since there's no video evidence. These days nothing happens w/o someone filming.


The article doesn't say there is no video evidence. Seems like at least two separate helicopters saw and pursued it. The FBI have enough evidence to describe its size. They may have video they aren't sharing. Odd thing to make up.


One of the articles[1] linked to in this article has scans of the Tucson PD's report which does state explicitly that there was no video evidence[2]

[1] https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/41223/tucson-mystery-d...

[2] https://www.thedrive.com/content-b/message-editor%2F16243890...


Not that I believe these click garantueed UFO stories, but the other day I was trying to take a pic of butterflies literally 3 feet away and I barely got anything more than a smudge.

Just saying quite hard taking pics of moving objects even though cameras are quite good...


Especially at night, and the drone apparently only had a small light on it, so you'd probably make out nothing on the video.


Police had IR cameras yet could not pickup it's heat signature yet they were chasing a green light for the duration and speed only possible for jet propelled craft.

Some UFO story.


Agreed. But for a completely different reason. This drone "violated restricted airspaces – including those of an Air Force base", not to mention the involvement of the CBP and local law enforcement, but I don't see any mention of the military being involved in the chase OR investigation.

It's not like it would be the first time a military (or even the US military, probably) hid info from their civilian counterparts.

(Of course, a much less cynical explanation is some sort of drug smuggling. How much batteries and drugs could you fit on a ~15sqft quadcopter?)


What happens if a cop dies or causes harm to civilians while trying to chase a military UAV while being used as unwitting training material? This won't fly well morally


But I thought the local cops were always notified of test exercises. /s


> 99% chance it's an air force UAV.

> Look at the nearby Davis-Monthan Air Force base

The question is whose air force UAV?


this kind of wishful cheerleading feels more appropriate during an avengers movie. its equally plausible two local cops are just making up tall tales to justify getting a little wild during a certification flight in the event the locals lodge a complaint about the noise.


There were two helicopters from separate organizations that were both chasing it.




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