I would probably peg Japan as most likely to be left behind by EV, to the point where Toyota is spreading FUD in Japan about EVs being a dead-end in favor of hydrogen fuel cell cars.
"Left behind" is somewhat subjective; [0] discusses the reasons for Japan's national strategy being big on hydrogen.
And if Toyota manages to FUD(/evangelize) consumers to buy hydrogen fuel cell cars, then they lock in customers and infrastructure towards hydrogen and away from EV. In part energy climate strategy, in part protectionism? Certainly it makes Japan less dependent on energy imports.
> Resource-poor, Japan began research on hydrogen after the 1970s energy crunch. The 2011 Fukushima nuclear plant accident and public anti-nuclear sentiment accelerated interest in hydrogen and other clean energies.
> [In 2021], the government issued its carbon neutrality road map, doubling the share of renewables providing electricity, to as much as 38% by 2030, with nuclear supplying about a fifth; its hydrogen-ammonia fuel target was set at 1%.
> Japan's placing multiple bets on hydrogen. With great fanfare, last year Japan opened one of the world's biggest "green hydrogen" plants, near the site of the Fukushima nuclear accident.
> Japan's hydrogen dreams aren't driven just by resource scarcity and meeting climate goals, [climate lobbyist InfluenceMap's] Nagashima said.
> "Japan has lost its competitiveness to other countries in terms of production of solar panels or wind turbines, and hydrogen is seen as a sector where it could lead in the world," Nagashima said.
>[US expert Wipke] said hydrogen is better suited to sectors like heavy industry and trucks, for long duration energy storage.
Given that you need electricity to produce hydrogen, EVs vs hydrogen for energy imports is a bit of a wash.
The results of this industrial strategy speak for themselves:
> Most are there to protectively top off their tanks, another employee tells me. Japan has only about 160 hydrogen refueling stations, concentrated in the country's three major cities. By comparison, there are about 30,000 gas stations across the country. Once every three months or so, a motorist ends up stranded, their tank empty, and they have to get towed. In addition to there being only a few vehicle models to choose from, which all have high sticker prices, the paucity of refueling infrastructure has turned consumers off.
And this all after Toyota has had 30 years to make the technology pan out.
(Obviously both BEV and FCEV need electricity, but that can equally come from renewable. FC has lower wire-to-wire efficiency than Battery, so clearly optimal energy efficiency is not Japan's motivation. Hydrogen refuels faster and a full tank gets you much further, but the tank is very bulky.)
Wondering given it's Japan and they keep stressing "resource-poor", is hydrogen FCEV less susceptible to embargoing on metals by China than BEV?
and yet WV sold >800k electric vehicles in 2022, Stellantis sold >500k and BMW sold >400k.